The ecosystems of the northern regions are under severe transformations as a result of climate change and anthropogenic and natural disturbance (Anisimov et al, 2007;
J.J. Taylor et al, 2020). Numerous projects of international organizations (IASC, ACIA, CAFF) are devoted to this problem. In this context, one of the main directions in Arctic research is the study of the ecological features of various animal groups (Chernov, 2008; Franke, 2019; J.J. Taylor et al, 2020). The influence of various factors on the state of the ecosystem increases from one trophic level to the next (Anisimov et al, 2007). In this regard, birds are a convenient model object for monitoring, showing the state of fragile ecosystems (J.J. Taylor et al, 2020). Comprehensive studies of the ecology of birds of prey, including the development of simple non-invasive methods for studying abundance, spatial distribution, nesting success and nutrition spectrum, will help to assess changes occurring at all levels of Arctic ecosystems (Franke et al, 2011).
We refuted the hypothesis with southern exposures, where we assumed that breeding areas with southern exposure had the largest productive yield. The situation varies significantly for the ecosystems of southern Yamal. As in principle, and for the entire Arctic as a whole. We see that nesting on slopes with a southern exposure occurs more often, so many researchers repeatedly noted a preferential choice of location by Peregrines to nest on slopes facing a southerly direction (Osmolovskaya 1948; Danilov et al. 1984). Both Sergey P. Paskhalny and Mikhail G. Golovatin and ourselves found birds will use bluffs that face different directions, however, the nest itself in the majority of places will be on a side, promontory or brow oriented in a south direction (S, SW and SE) and is often defended against prevailing cold winds. You can see it on our boxplots (Fig.15., Fig.16., Fig.17.) But due to climate change in general, slopes with a southern exposure are becoming more prone to overheating, here we can assume that this affects not only the hatching chicks, as seen in Fig.21., but also the flocks in general. We have not found any articles describing this in the conditions of the high Arctic.
Temperature analysis by hypothesis of “dependence of hatching ratio on climatic conditions (i.e. temperature, precipitation) (Franke et al, 2011; Anctil et al, 2014; Lamarre et al, 2018). The hatching ratio decreases with an increase of temperature and precipitation”, He showed a direct dependence of the average temperature in July on the hatching of peregrine falcon chicks, that is, with an increase in average temperatures, the percentage of hatched ones’ decreases - our hypothesis was confirmed.
We came to the conclusion that further more detailed studies are needed to analyze precipitation, as we described earlier.
The most important conclusion can be drawn from the analysis of the occupancy of nesting territories, we assumed that the occupancy of the nest sites could be either stable, decline, increase or cycling. If the occupancy is stable the population is super resilient to changing environmental factors during the study, if not - environmental factors have some effect. In the course of our study, it was found that the occupancy of nesting sites has fallen by 22% since 2008, which means that peregrine falcons in the area of our study in southern Yamal are significantly affected by climate change in the high Arctic.
With our study, we expect to show that Arctic ecosystems cannot withstand the stress they are exposed to. Using the peregrine falcon as a model object, we see the fragility of a system that was formed for many years before us. And how easily seemingly minor changes can and are already destroying it. Peregrine falcon is a top avian predator within the Arctic food webs, decrease in peregrine falcon population puts under danger species depending on it (Lesser white-fronted goose and Red breasted goose).
We expect that our study contributes to an understanding of mechanisms affecting peregrine falcon productivity and breeding success, particularly in abiotic (e.g., temperature and precipitation) variables.
Acknowledgments
Special thanks to Alexander Sokolov, deputy director of the Arctic Research Station of the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, the Ural branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
We thank N. Sokolova, O. Pokrovskay, A. Egorov et al, for devoted work and help.
All the people who collected the data on the remote arctic field site every year since 1999.
Expedition “Erkuta-2023” which gave us a full vision of severe work in Arctic tundra under harsh conditions!
