Introduction 3
Chapter I. Current state of affairs in the international system 9
1.1. Transformation of the international system 9
1.2. Specifics of the Indo-Pacific regional system 16
Chapter II. The US strategic thought 23
2.1. The US national style in strategic thinking 23
2.2. Mechanisms for implementing U.S. National Security Strategies and regional strategies31
Chapter III. The development of the US Indo-Pacific strategy 40
3.1. Presidential transition in the US and its impact on the US Indo-Pacific strategy 40
3.2. Major trends in the US Indo-Pacific strategy development 48
Conclusion 58
Annexes 63
List of Abbreviations 68
Bibliography 69
The evolution of the international system is closely connected with the acceleration of globalisation pace, the emergence of new global threats, the redistribution of regional influence, and the emergence of new actors challenging modern political organisation of the world. Some countries are resisting this, while others are seeking to take the vector of this development into their own hands. Under these circumstances, the US role as a global influential player in the international arena is gradually diminishing, giving way to the economically expanding China. The Indo-Pacific region is becoming the scene of this conflictual interaction.
The growing importance of this region is indisputable. More than half the world's population, about 2/3 of the global economy and the world's largest military forces are concentrated there. It is also a space “vital to US security and prosperity” in which Washington holds security treaties with Australia, Thailand, South Korea, Japan and the Philippines, supports ASEAN activities and invests in infrastructure acting as a counterweight to China.
Concerns about its rise have gradually appeared over the past 30 years. In 1993, the NSS emphasised the importance of “closely watching” Beijing. In the 2000s, it was noted that China had the greatest potential to become a U.S. competitor. The then administration acknowledged China's “internal transition” and still hoped for Beijing's democratic transformation. In the 2010s, China was called a “strategic competitor”. Obama's “pivotal” NSS increasingly considered China’s military modernisation, but denied its anti-Chinese nature. Against this background, harsh remarks against China from then-presidential candidate Trump seemed radical. The Trump administration has issued the Indo-Pacific Strategy 2019, not typical of US foreign policy, heralding the growing importance of the region.
After the turbulence of the Trump administration, hopes for more restrained rhetoric were pinned on Democratic candidate Biden, who released the Indo-Pacific Strategy even before the National Security Strategy. Nevertheless, the shift of global political-economic dynamics to the region and the rise of China increasingly calls into question the future of US regional leadership. It is therefore essential to explore how the new administration's approach to engagement with the region differs from the previous one, what mechanisms it employs and what trends in the strategy could potentially influence its development.
The aim of this master thesis is to identify key trends in the development of US IndoPacific strategy.
The object of this analysis is the US Indo-Pacific strategy.
The subject is the development of the US Indo-Pacific strategy.
In accordance with the aim, the following tasks have been formulated:
1. examine the transformation of the international system, in which the US strategy is being developed;
2. Discover the distinctive features of the Indo-Pacific regional system;
3. Clarify the US national style in strategic thinking;
4. Identify mechanisms for implementing US national security strategies;
5. Find out how presidential transition in the US affected its Indo-Pacific security strategy;
6. Discover the main trends in the development of the US Indo-Pacific strategy.
The timeline of this research covers the period from 2017 to the present. It is explained by the fact that the first US IPS emerged during the Trump administration (2017-2021) and has since been extended by the administration of the current US President J. Biden. However, the study also touches upon the genesis of the US “pivot to Asia” during the George W. Bush presidency (2001-2009) and the continuation of this policy during B. Obama's tenure (2009-2017).
This research relies on different sources that provide empirical data to analyse changes in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. The study is based on the information obtained from:
1. US strategic planning documents (National Security Strategies, Indo-Pacific strategies);
2. US security treaties with regional countries;
3. Speeches and joint statements by political leaders and representatives of the US, China and regional countries on the current relations between them;
4. Official statistical data (U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Reports to Congress, etc.);
5. Statistical data from research centres (Pew Research Center, Stockholm Peace Research Institute SIPRI, RAND Corporation etc.).
6. Analytical assessments by researchers from various countries on the development of the US Indo-Pacific strategy.
The author also refers to the articles in political and scientific journals in the related field and to the information obtained from the news agencies and magazines such as TASS, The New York Times, The Indian Express, The Statesman etc. Numerous researchers consider the US NSS and the IPS of the period mentioned from the Chinese threat perspective. They approach the issue in terms of the academic fields: history, political science and theory of international relations.
Within the historical approach, researchers trace the history of the US-China inter-state relationship, its evolution, and key events that have been influencing their development. T. H. Etzold1 examines the history of relations since 1784 and the reasons why there is a great misunderstanding between the two countries. S. Kennedy2 analyses the most memorable scenes in the American debate over China policy since 1978 when the so-called Normalization started. J. Johnson3 is moving from the more general causes of the sluggish US-China conflict to a narrower sphere of military security during Obama’s presidency. He bases his research on the military doctrines and strategies of the two countries. Attention is paid to how these strategies are being implemented in Asia-Pacific....
Today the world is undergoing a transformation driven by large-scale cross-border activity, with the rise of new actors challenging the modern political organisation of the world. Since the beginning of the century, the balance of power between developed and developing market economies has shifted significantly, ranking among the world's top twenty countries in terms of GDP.
There are several key approaches to this transformation. However, the most comprehensive theory is the so-called hegemonic stability theory, which clearly illustrates the course of transformation and the “transition” of power. According to it, the presence of a hegemon in the system is essential for a stable system of international relations. However, hegemonic power will eventually diminish. The transition of power will occur after the decline of hegemonic power.
Therefore, states interested in preserving the established international system will inevitably undertake some actions to achieve this, which explains the United States' actions. Under this transformation, the role of the US as a global influential actor in the international arena is gradually diminishing, yielding to the rapidly growing and economically advancing China.
The very name Indo-Pacific emerged a while ago and has replaced the term “Asia-Pacific region”. Different countries understand the new designation in varying ways, but the consensus remains the same: it reflects the new balance of power in Asia. China's economic, military and political rise, growing interdependence of the South, Southeast and East Asian sub-regions, India's increasing role in the region and the world, potential clash of interests between China and India in the long term shaped the concept. Today Indo-Pacific includes countries from the top 10 countries with the largest GDP in the world and from the 20 most densely populated countries. In addition, there is the strategically important Straits of Malacca, which account for 20-25% of all marine commodity turnover, and the South China Sea is the world's second busiest shipping lane.
Many international organisations operate in the region, namely ASEAN, APEC, ARF, SCO, TPSEP and others. Another important characteristic of the region is the so-called “integration of integrations”. Some national governments began to establish regional economic associations on more favourable terms of trade and options for the promotion of national currencies. For instance, the renminbi is being internationalized as a currency for payments between states. The region is consistently turning into a zone of U.S.-China rivalry with a characteristic build-up of presence. Military engagements are growing, the naval and other arms race is intensifying, and the probability of unplanned military clashes is increasing, especially given the possession of nuclear weapons.
Territorial disputes in the region periodically escalate. The tense situation on the Korean Peninsula only adds to the uncertainty in the region. The issue of the Taiwan Strait, which is directly involved in the U.S.-China struggle, stands apart. The distinctive features of the region's development are the continuing emergence of China as a global power; rapid economic and demographic growth; India's coming emergence as a global power; the increase in military expenditures and Asian arms race, especially at sea; the possibility that countries in the region will have to choose whether to join the U.S. or China; territorial conflicts over disputed territories; transition to national currencies; increasing nationalism; non-traditional threats such as maritime piracy, WMD non-proliferation, and illegal migration, tense situation on the Korean peninsula.
In the US, recognition of the region's importance began during the Bush administration. Back then, the focus of attention was on Northeast Asia, where a nuclear standoff was unfolding on the Korean Peninsula and China was rising, potentially challenging US dominance and putting pressure on Taiwan. Slightly later, attention also expanded to Southeast Asia due to the counterterrorism agenda. The Obama administration's “pivot” was a continuation of this reorientation strategy. The objective was to dissuade China from attempting hegemony and thereby to preserve the existing balance of power in a region in which the US was in the lead. The first reference to the Indo-Pacific occurred in 2010. Finally, Indo-Pacific became part of the U.S. foreign policy discourse under D. Trump. A separate, atypical of US foreign policy documentation, the IndoPacific Strategy was issued for the region, demonstrating the US national strategic thinking.
The concept is closely related to strategic culture, which is defined as a way of thinking about power that stems from a state's historical experience, its traditions, geostrategic factors, and national character. Some researchers also add nation's values, attitudes, patterns of behaviour etc.
Due to the succession in these issues, we can refer to a certain national “style” of strategic thought. Existing schools of strategic thought, namely Continental School, Maritime School, Aeronautical School, Astronautical School, Special Operations School, Unifying School, all derived some formula from the conditions determining the ability of a state to dominate a battlefield and the world. These attitudes concern issues of the country's conduct in conditions of war and peace while such a culture shapes a nation's conduct concerning the use of force in foreign politics, attitudes toward international threats, civil-military interactions, and strategic doctrine.
The background context of US historical development provided Washington with “free security” and an abundance of natural resources. Individualism and the free market boosted economic growth, while the lack of need to defend itself against aggressive environment made the US a protector of the persecuted. Encroachment on this image is treated as an attack on the universal values, and from this perspective, the US has adopted the role of watchdog and a transformative global leader who projects these values into foreign policy. The US' strategic culture aims to ensure and maintain its global leadership.....
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