Introduction 4
Chapter 1. Development of Trade Between Russia and Turkiye 6
1.1. Historical background and recent economic developments 6
1.2. Analysis of bilateral trade between Turkiye and Russia 12
1.3. The impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on Turkiye-Russia trade relations 26
1.4. Literature review on trade relations between Russia and Turkiye 30
Chapter 2. Industrial Machinery Sector Analysis for Turkiye and Russia 34
2.1. Turkish Industrial Machinery Sector (TIMS) 35
2.2. Russian Industrial Machinery Sector (RIMS) 46
2.3. Bilateral trade between Russia and Turkiye in industrial machinery sector 57
Chapter 3. A Comparative Advantage Analysis of Industrial Machinery Sectors of Turkiye and Russia 64
3.1. Purpose, theoretical concept and methods of study 65
3.2. Revealed comparative advantage analysis for industrial machinery sector 75
3.3. Bilateral comparative advantage analysis for industrial machinery sector 81
Conclusion 83
References 87
Annexes 93
Table of Map and Figures:
Map 1.1. Blue stream & Turkstream gas pipelines 9
Figure 1.1. Turkiye’s export: top 10 countries, billion US$ (2019-2022) 16
Figure 1.2. Turkiye’s import: top 10 countries, billion US$ (2019-2022) 16
Figure 1.3. Russia’s export: top 10 countries, billion US$ (2019-2021) 18
Figure 1.4. Russia’s import: top 10 countries, thousand US$ (2019-2021) 19
Figure 1.5. Turkiye’s foreign trade with Russia by years (billion US$) 21
Figure 1.6. Turkiye’s service trade with Russia in 2016-2021 (million US$) 21
Figure 1.7. FDI Net Inflows between Russia and Turkiye 23
Figure 1.8. Russia’s imports from Turkiye by years and months (million US $) 28
Figure 1.9. Turkiye’s imports from Russia by years and months (million US $) 29
Figure 1.10. Distribution of foreign companies established in Turkiye in 2022 by Country (million Turkish Liras) 30
Figure 2.1. Russia’s export to Turkiye by industrial machinery sub-sectors in 2021 (thousand US dollar) 58
Figure 2.2.Turkiye’s export to Russia by industrial machinery sub-sectors in 2021 (thousand US dollar) 59
Figure 2.3. The balance of trade in the industrial machinery sector, 2012-2021 60
Figure 2.4. Turkiye’s exports to Russia in the industrial machinery sector by months, 2021¬2023 (million US dollar) 61
Figure 2.5. Turkiye’s imports from Russia in the industrial machinery sector by months, 2021-2023 (million US dollar) 62
Figure 3.1. Russia’s revealed comparative advantage for industrial machinery sector, Balassa Index, 2012-2021 76
Figure 3.2. Turkiye’s revealed comparative advantage for industrial machinery sector, Balassa Index, 2012-2021 77
Figure 3.3. Russia’s Revealed Trade Index (RTA), 2012-2021 78
Figure 3.4. Turkiye’s Revealed Trade Index (RTA), 2012-2021 79
Figure 3.7. Russia’s Bilateral RCA Index for industrial machinery sector, 2012-2021 82
Figure 3.8. Turkiye’s Bilateral RCA Index for industrial machinery sector, 2012-2021 82
List of Tables:
Table 1.1. Foreign trade of Turkiye with Russia, 1992-1999, (million USD) 11
Table 1.2. Macroeconomic indicators of Russia and Turkiye, 2021 13
Table 1.3. Foreign trade of Turkiye, billion US dollars (2013-2022) 14
Table 1.4. Foreign trade of Russia, billion US dollars (2013-2022) 17
Table 1.5. Top 10 product groups in Turkiye’s exports to Russia, million US dollars 24
Table 1.6. Top 10 product groups in Turkiye’s imports from Russia, million US dollars 25
Table 1.7. Literature on economic relations between Turkiye and Russia 31
Table 2.1. Clasification of Industrial Machinery Sector in NACE Rev. 2 Codes 35
Table 2.2. Number of enterprises by economic activities, 2010-2021 37
Table 2.3. Employment in the Turkish industrial machinery sector 38
Table 2.4. Turkish Industrial Machinery production value (million TL) 39
Table 2.5. Turkish industrial machinery sector’s value added (million TL) 39
Table 2.6. Revenue of theTIMS (million TL) 40
Table 2.7. R&D expenditures of TIMS (million TL) 41
Table 2.8. Number of patent and utility model registration applications in TIMS 42
Table 2.9. Total number of domestic trademarks registered in the TIMS 42
Table 2.10. Foreign direct investment in TIMS (million US dollar) 43
Table 2.11. Top 15 major TIMS companies, by subsector (2021) 44
Table 2.12. SWOT Analysis for Turkish Industrial Machinery Sector 45
Table 2.13. Number of enterprises by economic activities in RIMS, 2017-2022 48
Table 2.14. Employment in the RIMS, 2017-2022 49
Table 2.15. Revenue of the RIMS (billion RUB) 50
Table 2.16. Investments in the RIMS, 2017-2021 (million RUB) 51
Table 2.17. Investments in RIMS by sources, 2019 and 2020 (million RUB) 52
Table 2.18. Number of developed advanced production technologies by sector in RIMS, 2017¬
2022 53
Table 2.19. R&D Expenditures by selected industries, 2017-2021 53
Table 2.20. Top 10 major companies in the RIMS (2021) 54
Table 2.21. SWOT Analysis for RIMS 56
Table 2.22. Industrial machinery sub-sectors 57
Table 2.23. Comparison of increases in Turkiye's exports to Russia and Turkiye's imports from
World by industrial machinery sub-sectors (million US dollar) 63
Table 3.1. Determining of dynamic RCA 68
Table 3.2. Literature review on Russia’s RCA 69
Table 3.3. Literature review on Turkiyes’s RCA 72
Table 3.4. Dynamic RCA determination for Turkiye and Russia, 2012-2021 80
The Russian Federation (RF) and Republic of Turkiye (TR) are strong regional economies with their potential for trade, infrastructure and investment. Bilateral economic relations, cooperation and the bilateral institutional environment are rapidly developing between these two countries. In light of positive developments in both the economic and political fields, it is worth examining the development of bilateral trade and the sectors that support this bilateral trade. Therefore, the study focuses on the examination of the industrial machinery sector, starting with a broad analysis of bilateral trade relations.
In the first chapter, the trade relations between the Russian Federation and Turkiye and important realized and ongoing projects are evaluated. In particular, natural gas pipeline projects which make the two countries dependent on each other, new structures built for electricity generation, and ongoing construction projets will be highlighted. One of the main questions of this section is “How the enomoic relations of two countries have developed from past to present?”. The change in economic relations after the collapse of the USSR will be evaluated and the export and import data from the 1990s to the 2000s will be shared for both country. This chapter aims to evaluate the economic relations between the two countries by using current data collected from the different sources. In addition, the recent economic situation, impacts of Ukraine crisis, current projects, and investments in machinery sector will be shown depending on selected economic indicators. In addition, in this section, the methods used to examine bilateral trade between the two countries have been investigated and a literature review has been conducted. The frequently used methods and the results obtained are briefly presented in table form.
The industrial machinery sector, which is the subject matter that this study delves into, encompasses various significant sub-sectors that are responsible for producing final products and supplying equipment and machinery to other industries. This sector serves goods and machinery to agricultural, construction, energy, industrial, infrastructure, mining and transportation and others. The main question addressed in the second section is: “Why industrial machinery sector is important for Russia and Turkiye? How does the technological level change in years and which are the leading companies?” Turkish and Russian industrial machinery sector and exports have been growing in the last 5-10 years and this sector is generally the second largest contributor to Turkiye's exports after road vehicles, and its share in Russia's exports is also increasing. Therefore, in the second part of the study, the sectors of both countries are examined with economic and technological indicators. The investments made in the sectors, value added, the share of R&D expenditures, and the leading companies in the sector have been evaluated. In order to evaluate industrical machinery sectors of two countries, current data are collected from Rosstat, Turkstat, Fedstat and other important sources. In addition to these sources, reports of industrial establishments, sector analyses of some private firms, and annual industrial and investment status reports of countries have been thoroughly examined and added to this study.
The second part of study also focuses on bilateral trade between Russia and Turkiye in the industrial machinery sector, including sub-sectors and changes in export values by years. This part also provides information on the major contributors to growth in each sub-sector and discusses the impact of economic sanctions and and amount of re-export on trade between the two countries.
The purpose of last chapter is to focus on comparative advantages of industrial machinery sector. The third chapter will explore answer of following question: “How can the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA Index) be used to assess industrial machinery sector of Russia and Turkiye?” Different types of RCA Indexes are widely used to analyze of a country’s comparative advantage in specific industries. This purpose is signifcant in the disciplines of industry and economic development, because it will contribute to a better understanding of the competitiveness of industrial machinery sector. In addition to that another purpose is to provide evidence for level of international competitiveness of Turkish and Russian industrial machinery sector, which can be valuable to policymakers and other stakeholders in the industry who are responsible for implementing development policies.
This third chapter aims to determine the comparative advantage of the sub-sectors within the industrial machinery sector by using the as Balassa RCA, Vollrath RCA, Edwards and Schoer RCA and Bilateral RCA indexes for the product groups produced by the relevant sub-sectors according to the Harmonized System Classification (HS), and to reveal the changes that have occurred in their competitiveness during the period between 2012 and 2021. The industrial machinery sub-sectors previously examined using 3 different RCA indexes at the international level is analyzed based on bilateral export data. The study has been deepened to examine the status of industrial machinery sub¬sectors in bilateral level. The bilateral RCA analysis shows that Turkiye and Russia's mutual trade in the industrial machinery sector has seen both advantages and disadvantages in specific sub-sectors over the years. By doing comparative analysis data were collected from Trademap and the comparative advantage of the 19 sub-sectors evaluated.
In the historical background part of the study, the relations between the Russia and Turkiye were examined, and the institutions and agreements which strengthened this trade relationship were mentioned. Bilateral trade relations between Turkiye and Russia have been strengthened through numerous agreements and development plans involving mutual technology sharing, which were established between the USSR and the Republic of Turkiye. The natural gas agreement signed in 1984 will link the commercial relations between the two countries even more closely in the future, through gas pipelines. In the following years, Turkish companies' investments in Russia have increased, and today, they have reached a level where they can jointly undertake advanced technology sharing and large-scale projects, such as the Akkuyu Nuclear Project and the S-400 defense system. Moreover, the two countries are among each other's top 10 trading partners in both exports and imports, making them indispensable trade partners.
In light of these developments, the volume of merchandise trade between the two countries reached $68.2 billion US dollars in 2022, an increase of 96,5% from the previous year. According to data from 2021, trade in services was at a level of $1.72 billion US dollars and is continuing to increase annually. Despite the negative impact of the 2015 aircraft crisis between the two countries, investments continue between Turkiye and Russia. In 2022, Turkiye's top export to Russia was "Machinery, mechanical appliances," while Russia's top export to Turkiye was "Mineral fuels, mineral oils" with a 192% increase.
The tensions and military operations in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by western countries significantly increased the trade volume of Russia and Turkiye in the short term. Turkiye's swing player policy has an impact on its economic relations with Russia. Turkiye's exports to Russia have grown rapidly, reaching a monthly maximum value of $1313.9 million US dollars in December 2022, while Russian exports have increased more than two-fold due to high oil prices. Another important impact of the crisis in Ukraine is that the activities of Russian companies in Turkiye have increased considerably. In January-December 2022, 1363 Russian companies opened in Turkiye or made partnerships with other companies. By number of company and by capital Russia stands at the top of list.
The industrial machinery sector, examined in the second chapter, plays a significant role in the exports of both countries, and its development is supported because it supports sectors such as energy, agriculture, and construction sectors. According to the NACE Rev. 2 classification, number of enterprises in the industrial machinery sector in Turkiye increase by an average of around 5% per year, while in Russia, the number of enterprises in the sector decreases every year. Depending on the number of enterprises, the number of employees in the industrial machinery sector in Turkiye, except for a decrease in 2019, increases every year. However, the number of employees in the industrial machinery sector in Russia has shown a significant increase in 2018, but this number has declined in following years. The revenue of the industrial machinery sector in both countries increases every year. Although these increases are shown at high levels because the data is given in rubles and Turkish liras, fluctuations in national currency exchange rates do not reflect the real levels of these increases. Foreign investments in the industrial machinery sector of both countries have decreased between 2017-2021, but state investments in Russia have increased significantly in 2020 and 2021. The share of R&D investments in the total profit of the industrial machinery sector in Turkiye remained at around 1%, while number of high-tech products in the Russian industrial machinery sector is increasing.
In the industrial machinery sector in Russia, world giants that produce machines for the agriculture sector such as CNH Industrial, John Deere, and Klaas are among the top 15, however the KZ Rostselmash company, which produces machinery for the same sector, is in the first place. Strong companies such as Borets, AAEM, and Novomet are also among the top 15 in the production of compressors, turbines, and construction machinery. In the same sector, agricultural and construction machinery have an important place among Turkiye's top 15 companies. Turk Tractor, Hidromek, Same Deutz Fahr, Qimta§, Ba§ak Tractor, and Erkunt Tractor have a significant share in the sector. In addition to this, companies that operate globally in the hydraulic sector such as Bosch Rexroth and in the production of machine process machines such as Durmazlar are also among the top 15. Daikin and Klimasan companies lead in air conditioning sub-sector...
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